JNUG and the Behavioral Analysis of Markets Model

My friend Cyrille Jubert is a France-based Gold and Silver markets expert featured by the largest financial newsletter publisher in the world.


Today, he chose to highlight the BAM Model’s JNUG forecast to his global audience and I wanted to share that forecast here so that new subscribers (that were not with us during the wild JNUG ride) can better understand how I exploit periods when the model says a market is mis-priced.


In my last post, I mentioned the idea of turning my pain into your own personal gain.  ((meaning that you can focus on BAM Model Portfolio (BMP) positions that show an open loss as a method for highlighting potentially over-sold names)).  The logic in this idea can be found in the BMP’s proven performance since inception February or 2015–  w/ a record of 83 closed winners, 2 closed losers, and 3 closed break-even trades.


And although all of you are well aware that I’m not a financial advisor and that I never provide trading or investment advice/directives here, I do understand that subscribers occasionally use some of the model’s predictions as a way to challenge and clarify their own thoughts.


In the case of JNUG, that name saw the largest inversion washout (to the downside) that I have ever recorded in my work.  Thus the reason I was so aggressive in sharing my enthusiasm (as well as what appeared to be outrageous targets) w/ subscribers as well as on Twitter.  @baminvestor


During early January 2016, JNUG traded as low as 20.52 into January 20th.


At the time, I was holding positions that were well under-water.  But the JNUG Model was predicting that prices would soon rebound not only to my entry levels, but well beyond in a HUGE advance carrying price back to 206 or above.


My confidence in a large move was based on the BAM Model’s proprietary upside “retest” levels and I was willing to hold steady and continue to be as patient as necessary while I waited for the forecast to unfold.


Then, as JNUG lifted off that January low, it did something that’s not unusual after a washout occurs (but very welcomed) —  it created a “melt-up” fractal, with all of the required components that I’ve discovered during my 30 plus years of studying the human emotion that drives market price action.


Fast-forward now to June 3rd when a specific window was identified and predicted to bring the most powerful (blow-off) portion of the actual melt-up.


If JNUG were to act normally during this melt-up window, we would expect to see an attack of the retest level at 206 on its way toward a potential attack of the primary speedline (formed by price-action generated way back on Jan 22nd through February 8th).


That’s when (June 3rd) we immediately sent an updated chart (seen below) of the model to subscribers alerting them about the model’s incredibly bullish near-term set up into 6/28 through 7/14 (and that’s also the chart Cyrille Jubert shared with his clients today)


We then continued to send charts to clients showing that JNUG was tracking nicely and that our ultra-bullish forecast was well intact.


Fortunately for us, $JNUG tracked the model perfectly and saw a speedline attack high at 315.04 on July 11 (a 1400% gain off the January low!)


Also fortunate for us, $JNUG then tracked the model on the downside as well when a collapse unfolded as soon as JNUG traded through the end of the window on 7/14.


As you can see in the final chart below, both the 206 retest as well as the speedline attack unfolded directly into the 6/28–7/14 “melt-up” window and shares accumulated into the 21-22 level during January.

JNUG-60MM-6-3-16 JNUG-60MM-6-7-16 JNUG-60MM-6-28-16 JNUG-60MM-7-15-16 JNUG-60MM-7-26-16


IMF Signals Support for US Dollar

As you all know, our model is calling for a USD melt-up coincident with a stock market crash and we believe that has finally started.  We also believe the quant-driven “one-trade” dynamic of dollar DOWN/stocks, crude, gold, etc. UP will be looked upon (blamed) as a “catalyst” once the market crashes.


Here’s an interesting article released yesterday.  It didn’t gain a lot of attention but that’s pretty typical when sentiment moves to an extreme.  (USD bearish sentiment readings are at record levels)

Our model is extremely bullish the US Dollar and we remain long.



WASHINGTON, Nov 19 (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar will remain the world’s primary reserve currency for many years or decades, an International Monetary Fund official said on Thursday.

Spokeswoman Caroline Atkinson’s comments came two days after IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the world can no longer rely on a currency issued by a single country, and a new global currency may evolve out of the IMF’s in-house unit of account, known as Special Drawing Rights. (For more, see [ID:nPEK204168])

“The managing director has said … he expects the dollar to be the leading reserve currency for many years or decades,” Atkinson said at an IMF media briefing.

She said the IMF routinely looks at what is happening in the international monetary system, but was not launching any sort of formal study into how SDRs might one day replace the dollar as a global reserve currency.

“During this last financial crisis, people actually found the dollar a safe haven and preferred to move into dollar assets when risk aversion was very high,” she said. “That suggests there’s very solid demand, based on the U.S. economy’s strength and size and liquidity of its financial markets.”

The dollar’s role in the world economy has been a topic of debate in recent months as its value fell against a basket of currencies. China, the largest foreign buyer of U.S. government debt, has expressed growing concern that the weakening dollar would hurt its finances. (Reporting by Emily Kaiser, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)