According to our model, we should see sharp downside moves in both of those mkts into Friday (October 9th) and, yes, we’re sticking with our SPX target of 944.

The BAM Model–as far as this bearish forecast is concerned is locked in place and there’s nothing that will change the forecast.  Could it be temporarily wrong?  Sure.  But based on everything I’m seeing, I’m confident we’ll be crashing very soon.

So what’s with Monday and Tuesday’s big rally?  (yes we’ve heard that a lot)

Well…the bounce of the last two session was a necessary element if we’re going to see a crash, in fact, all crashes experience a period of “stretching the tape” before the crash accelerates to the downside.

This stretching of the tape is a result of bulls and bears fighting it out and it’s what creates the “resiliency” to pain which is what allows people to hang on to losing positions way too long which in turn forces the inevitable “capitulation” that comes at the bottom.

By the way, this dynamic happens fairly frequently if you study fractal-level intraday charts.

So could the market make another higher high?  Sure it could.  But I seriously doubt it will and if it were to occur, we’d be even more aggressive in buying November PUTS on the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 Indexes.  Is that reckless.  No, not according to our model.  According to our model, this is the time we must step up and follow its instructions.

The “Set-up”

This market ‘set-up’ has taken months and years to fall in place–as do all market crashes or melt-ups according to our work–and although the exact turning point can be tough to identify, I’ve never seen a single set up like this fail during the 90 years of stock market data I’ve studied.

But what about all of this talk about “resiliency?”

The stubbornness–many have been calling it “resiliency”–is exactly what is necessary to create a crash.  Think about it.  In order for a market to crash, you must have the majority on the wrong side of the trade.

By its very nature, a crash requires a boatful of investors on the “wrong side”–not simply a handful.

One thing is certain.  We’ll all know the answer to the October crash question soon enough.

We depend 100% on our proprietary BAM model but we also try to keep our head up with regard to other interesting ideas.  After all, our model makes some of the most outrageous predictions from time to time–like telling us that crude oil would crash from 147 dollars to 36 dollars over a 12-18 months period back in 2008.

Well…here we are again. 

We’re standing out on a limb here with our call for a 50% crash in the stock market over the coming 2-5 months and although we could have held that forecast to ourselves, we’d rather walk the talk by putting ourselves and our money on the line here.

These are interesting times and although I’d love to be bullish and I’d love to be the guy bringing great news to the table, the model is the most bearish I have ever seen it.  This includes the readings at the all-time high in 2007 and it also includes the 2008 pre-crash readings we were seeing.

I’ll leave the fundamentals up to those who follow that discipline, but the BAM Model, as we saw so many times during 2007 and 2008, is predicting something that most seem unprepared for– and we’re going to follow its predictions.

-Bearish stocks
-Bullish Bonds
-Bearish Crude Oil
-Bullish USD
-Bearish Gold

Disclosure: we have current positions reflecting all of these predictions

Please don’t take this wrong–I’m not trying to come across as arrogant–but the idea that markets are random is absurd. A three year old child is capable of drawing a trendline and those trendlines existed long before graphs were available to the public and long before computer trading came into being.

How is it possible that random price movement would create a trend channel and how could it create those trend channels on each and every fractal timeframe?

The BAM Model was created through detailed study of price movement related to human emotion (behavioral analysis) and it required me twenty years to develop this model.

When markets are volatile and emotion is running high, as measured by the $VIX index, the BAM intra-day SPX model has at times predicted every significant intra-day move that the market would make during the trading session. For example, prior to the trading session, we’ll email clients with this:

-strength into 9:15
-weakness into 10:45
-strength into 11:30
-weakness into the close.

If markets are random, how would that be possible?

In fact, we’re so confident in our model that we’ve committed to a Twitter “Full Access Campaign” where we’re allowing the entire world to follow the predictions we send to our large hedge fund clients each day and we’re going to do that each day until October 11th.

Let’s see how it goes and if, after watching our real-time messages, the doubters still believe in this EMH, RWH nonsense, I’ll be shocked.

I’ll even tell them how I developed the model because I think they’re so stuck in their views that they’ll never take the time to figure this stuff out–

100 years of monthly bar data would be considered by some as a decent data set to study but since each month equals one bar of data, 100 years equals only 1200 bars of data. If, on the other hand, you move down the fractal ladder and study just 20 hours of 1 minute bar data that would also equal 1200 bars.

Using this method of studying fractal movement–in essence an unlimited number of miniature bull and bear markets–it was possible for me to determine unequivocally, that what I thought I had discovered in the longer time frame studies of monthly, weekly, and daily charts was indeed showing up in each and every fractal level I studied.

Very similar to fractals in Elliott Wave Theory but I built this from the ground up.

I welcome you all to follow us free on Twitter until October 11th.

Our model is unequivocal in its message here. The stock markets of the world are about to crash and our model has identified both price targets and calendar dates for the events.

By the way, when crude oil was trading at 147, we told our clients that the BAM model was predicting a crash in crude oil over the next 12-18 months taking the price down to 36 dollars per barrel.
It only took 8 months to reach our target and, once again, these RWH guys said it was “totally unpredictable.” What are the odds of that?

Here are a few articles that came out after our September 21 call for a “50% stock market crash.”

50 Percent Crash Coming for Stock Market?

Financial Model Tweets Out Predictions Of The Next Stock Market Crash

A 50% crash in stock market may happen soon?

Is it typical for late September and early October to bring an increase in volume?  Is it typical for late September and early October to bring selling pressure? Does one plus one equal two?

It is a fact that in the history of the US stock market, a new bull market has NEVER begun with a large rally like this.  The only other time we saw a large rally like this off a PRESUMED bottom was in 1930.  The best bull markets start slowly and the first leg up is unimpressive.  The second leg up is the monster up leg NOT the first leg up.

I know, I know, the EXPECTED fundamentals are beautiful just like the EXPECTED fundamentals for crude oil were beautiful at the 147 TOP in 2008.

Granted I’m getting run over here but, mark my words–this is going to be a disaster.

-JGS