Attack of 15970 Probable for Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Behavioral Analysis of Markets Model was built after studying the similarities of the pre/ and post 1929 stock market crash price-action as well as the pre and post 1987 stock market crash price-action.   And after multiple years, and multiple dead-ends, I finally noticed the exact same pattern of human emotion had unfolded during both of those periods– as well as a common topping count (waves of price-action) also tied to human emotion.


And while many analyst talk in terms of optimism and pessimism driving price action into highs and lows, I found that description to be deceiving for one simple reason.  All bull and bear legs (at any degree I’ve studied) terminate (form TOPS or BOTTOMS) on a combination of factors.  For example, a TOP is formed due to a combination of optimism (actual net new purchases of shares) as well as short-covering of shares.  So in this example, the net new purchases can be attributed to “optimism” but the fund managers and traders that either capitulate or forcibly cover their previously shorted shares are not optimistic at all.  Their short-covering is strictly a function of their own capitulation or the forced margin call (broker or risk desk).


But more importantly, I discovered what I later came to describe as “retest” levels.  Behavioral Analysis retest levels are completely different than the “retest” levels described and identified through using Technical Analysis.  Retest levels derived through the study of Technical Analysis are typically created on price breakouts or breakdowns and they’re obvious to anyone willing to look at a price chart.


Behavioral Analysis “retest” levels (the ones that I discovered, and the cornerstone of my price target work) are completely hidden to the naked eye when studying price charts and were only revealed to me when I took a reverse engineering approach to dissecting the 1929 and 1987 crashes.   In other words, I looked at the final price destination the crashes reached and then worked my way back in time looking for any odd activity that might have occurred at those same price levels during the past weeks, months, and years of price-action.


…Which brings us to the reason behind today’s post….


Today’s price-action in the DJIA once again shows a completed BAM TOPPING count, and more importantly, a similar (albeit smaller) version of the price fractals I discovered back in 1929 and 1987.  So assuming the DJIA tracks the historic price-action I’ve used to identify multiple mini-crashes, we should see a violent attack of the 15970 level in the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the 7/22–8/12  window (adjusted on 7/26) with the most likely Flash-Crash or mini crash occurring during the 7/28-8/8 period. (adjusted on 7/26)


The Behavioral Analysis of Markets Model long term forecast is predicting a July 2016 TOP in this area followed by a massive bear market decline carrying price back below the 2009 low.   We remain bullish Natural Gas, but not much more at this point…


*Disclosure:  I am long SPY PUTS at various strike prices and various expiration dates.




The 1929 Stock Market Crash vs the Current BAM Model Prediction

The 1929 market crash was key in building the BAM Model but what’s it telling us about today’s stock market?

We depend 100% on our proprietary BAM model but we also try to keep our head up with regard to other interesting ideas.  After all, our model makes some of the most outrageous predictions from time to time–like telling us that crude oil would crash from 147 dollars to 36 dollars over a 12-18 months period back in 2008.

Well…here we are again. 

We’re standing out on a limb here with our call for a 50% crash in the stock market over the coming 2-5 months and although we could have held that forecast to ourselves, we’d rather walk the talk by putting ourselves and our money on the line here.

These are interesting times and although I’d love to be bullish and I’d love to be the guy bringing great news to the table, the model is the most bearish I have ever seen it.  This includes the readings at the all-time high in 2007 and it also includes the 2008 pre-crash readings we were seeing.

I’ll leave the fundamentals up to those who follow that discipline, but the BAM Model, as we saw so many times during 2007 and 2008, is predicting something that most seem unprepared for– and we’re going to follow its predictions.

-Bearish stocks
-Bullish Bonds
-Bearish Crude Oil
-Bullish USD
-Bearish Gold

Disclosure: we have current positions reflecting all of these predictions


BAM In The News…and India is Following

Our BAM TFAC (Twitter Full Access Campaign) is going very well with 5% single-session gains posted in many of our individual recommendations today.

As you know, this campaign –opening up our “playing hand” for the world to see– is regarded by some as “suicide by forecasting”…, but we believe in the BAM Model and its ability to guide us to profits, and we welcome this very public challenge.  After all, we’ve always broken the rules (you’re NEVER supposed to provide both time and price objectives when forecasting!), and now we’re not only breaking the rules…we’re breaking them in front of a global audience!

To that point, we’re happy to see the press picking up our TFAC story and we hope to see our stock market crash alert reach the eyes and ears of many more individual investors over the coming days.

We’ve included a link to one of the articles written about us by our friends in India – CommodityOnline.  They are the leading provider and largest global vertical of information, news and research on commodities.

One more thing before you go.

Check back often (or become a “BAM Insider” for instant notification of new posts) because we’re going to be posting a brand new video presentation of JG Savoldi explaining the similarities of today’s market and the 1929 stock market crash.  We’ve already taken a peek at this video and, I’m telling you, it’s a “must see.”

Talk soon,

Rod Wilson

Director – BAM Investor