The 1929 market crash was key in building the BAM Model but what’s it telling us about today’s stock market?
We depend 100% on our proprietary BAM model but we also try to keep our head up with regard to other interesting ideas. After all, our model makes some of the most outrageous predictions from time to time–like telling us that crude oil would crash from 147 dollars to 36 dollars over a 12-18 months period back in 2008.
Well…here we are again.
We’re standing out on a limb here with our call for a 50% crash in the stock market over the coming 2-5 months and although we could have held that forecast to ourselves, we’d rather walk the talk by putting ourselves and our money on the line here.
These are interesting times and although I’d love to be bullish and I’d love to be the guy bringing great news to the table, the model is the most bearish I have ever seen it. This includes the readings at the all-time high in 2007 and it also includes the 2008 pre-crash readings we were seeing.
I’ll leave the fundamentals up to those who follow that discipline, but the BAM Model, as we saw so many times during 2007 and 2008, is predicting something that most seem unprepared for– and we’re going to follow its predictions.
-Bearish stocks
-Bullish Bonds
-Bearish Crude Oil
-Bullish USD
-Bearish Gold
Disclosure: we have current positions reflecting all of these predictions
Your analysis is interesting and I currently agree with all of your bearish and bullish directions, but my Elliott Wave analysis strongly suggests that we will never see sub 666 on the SP for the rest of our lives.
My wave analysis suggests that we are very likely to trade sideways between 750 and 1200ish for the next decade or so while we clean up the mess that the banksters have wrought.
Good luck with your predictions.
It’s true the market did retrace some on October 1st, but today on October 5th it has had quite a strong showing and upside potential – over 1.5% gain in the S&P.
I have watched the video – but why would the crash happen now when all the market internals are still showing a fairly strong bullish bias (based on price action) ?
I don’t understand you people, why on earth are you guys bullish in bonds? or bearish in gold? I could understand USA stocks, that I can understand. Lucy you have some explainin to do…..
We’re bullish bonds because the model is bullish bonds and we don’t argue with the model. If I were forced to guess at “why” Bonds will rally (as they already are) I’d say a flight to quality.
If, the model is predicting a 50% decline in 2-5 months, would it be a good idea to buy the deepest out the money calls for jan 10?
I think you meant to write deepest out of the money “puts.” Sorry we cannot make recommendations. We do, however, allow clients to view our BMP (BAM Model Portfolio) and that product consists of positions we believe will increase in value over time.
Didnt your model predict SPX 924 by now???