Comments on: “Stretching the Tape” http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/ Predictive Analysis of Markets Tue, 10 Nov 2009 03:35:34 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: JG Savoldi http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/comment-page-1/#comment-108 JG Savoldi Wed, 14 Oct 2009 05:35:12 +0000 http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/?p=619#comment-108 We've already been early on this call but that's not a solid reason to join the bulls and risk decimating our clients' portfolios. Crude oil ran a week longer than expected into the 147 TOP but we simply added to our DUG positions. If a market wants to "overshoot" there's nothing we can do to stop it but we're certainly not going to "go away." The key, as always, is money management and as long as you're not over-leveraged, you can profit handsomely by fading the heard. We’ve already been early on this call but that’s not a solid reason to join the bulls and risk decimating our clients’ portfolios. Crude oil ran a week longer than expected into the 147 TOP but we simply added to our DUG positions. If a market wants to “overshoot” there’s nothing we can do to stop it but we’re certainly not going to “go away.” The key, as always, is money management and as long as you’re not over-leveraged, you can profit handsomely by fading the heard.

]]> By: JG Savoldi http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/comment-page-1/#comment-107 JG Savoldi Wed, 14 Oct 2009 05:26:53 +0000 http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/?p=619#comment-107 Yes, we do believe there will be a stock market crash. Our model is suggesting 22% downside risk during October and a 50% downside risk over the coming five months. Yes, we do believe there will be a stock market crash. Our model is suggesting 22% downside risk during October and a 50% downside risk over the coming five months.

]]> By: JG Savoldi http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/comment-page-1/#comment-106 JG Savoldi Wed, 14 Oct 2009 05:24:32 +0000 http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/?p=619#comment-106 Again, our wheat, USDSEK and Bond positions have more than made up for the drag coming from our negative view on stocks. The stock averages have gone virtually nowhere for two weeks and we don't think it's prudent to worry about catching 3% upside in the face of 50% downside risk. Again, our wheat, USDSEK and Bond positions have more than made up for the drag coming from our negative view on stocks. The stock averages have gone virtually nowhere for two weeks and we don’t think it’s prudent to worry about catching 3% upside in the face of 50% downside risk.

]]> By: Victor Zikeman http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/comment-page-1/#comment-97 Victor Zikeman Mon, 12 Oct 2009 21:23:17 +0000 http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/?p=619#comment-97 The stock market is not going to crash. There is TOO much liquidity in the world, and the $ is too weak. Period. The stock market is not going to crash. There is TOO much liquidity in the world, and the
$ is too weak. Period.

]]> By: Alan Freeman http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/comment-page-1/#comment-83 Alan Freeman Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:07:25 +0000 http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/?p=619#comment-83 Mate, at what point do you give up and admit you may be wrong. Following your leads over the last 2 weeks would have lead to big losses. I notice your tweets are a lot fewer these days. Look what other experts are saying. http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1588/ Mate, at what point do you give up and admit you may be wrong.
Following your leads over the last 2 weeks would have lead to big losses.
I notice your tweets are a lot fewer these days.
Look what other experts are saying.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1588/

]]> By: Ross http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/comment-page-1/#comment-82 Ross Fri, 09 Oct 2009 12:48:02 +0000 http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/?p=619#comment-82 Just curious if you still believe there is going to be a crash? Just curious if you still believe there is going to be a crash?

]]> By: myke smith http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/comment-page-1/#comment-80 myke smith Thu, 08 Oct 2009 19:08:44 +0000 http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/?p=619#comment-80 Your model is about to head into an almost 2 month long earnings season. Alcoa. Confirmed blowout. Goldman Sachs. Going to blow out. Almost 90% of financials, inevitable blowout. I would give some credence to the BAM model after Christmas. This coming from a 90% of the time short seller. Good luck! Your model is about to head into an almost 2 month long earnings season. Alcoa. Confirmed blowout. Goldman Sachs. Going to blow out. Almost 90% of financials, inevitable blowout. I would give some credence to the BAM model after Christmas. This coming from a 90% of the time short seller. Good luck!

]]> By: Dr Bohica http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/comment-page-1/#comment-79 Dr Bohica Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:31:06 +0000 http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/?p=619#comment-79 One other matter. You comment on Twitter about comparisons with 1987's crash but the distinction between what happened prior to that crash and what you are anticipating with this one are fairly significant. When I examine the breadth stats prior to previous crashes, there are marked divergences between breadth and index prices. No so with this rally. Few sober market watchers believe what's currently happening in the market can go on forever, but the classic problematic patterns of market breadth are currently not present. One other matter. You comment on Twitter about comparisons with 1987′s crash but the distinction between what happened prior to that crash and what you are anticipating with this one are fairly significant. When I examine the breadth stats prior to previous crashes, there are marked divergences between breadth and index prices. No so with this rally.

Few sober market watchers believe what’s currently happening in the market can go on forever, but the classic problematic patterns of market breadth are currently not present.

]]> By: Dr Bohica http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/comment-page-1/#comment-78 Dr Bohica Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:21:18 +0000 http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/?p=619#comment-78 I appreciate you making the website free for a bit. But what happened to last Monday morning's predicted gap down, predicted on Sunday? Instead, we got a big move up on Monday. Now you write as if it is actually according to prophecy that we are moving up prior to moving down. I appreciate you making the website free for a bit. But what happened to last Monday morning’s predicted gap down, predicted on Sunday? Instead, we got a big move up on Monday. Now you write as if it is actually according to prophecy that we are moving up prior to moving down.

]]> By: rcm http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/2009/10/stretching-the-tape/comment-page-1/#comment-72 rcm Wed, 07 Oct 2009 22:48:26 +0000 http://www.baminvestor.com/blog/?p=619#comment-72 Is it possible that bulls win and we have a capitulation from shorts and a melt-up? While I'm in the "this-rally-has-been-ridiculous" camp (and have been preparing--to may detriment, so far--for a correction), it's enormously stubborn and absent some exogenous shock, I have a hard time seeing this thing selling off more than 5% before bargain hunters jump in gleefully. Did you model, by chance, give early signals during the dotcom boom? If so, any chance that might be the case here? Is it possible that bulls win and we have a capitulation from shorts and a melt-up? While I’m in the “this-rally-has-been-ridiculous” camp (and have been preparing–to may detriment, so far–for a correction), it’s enormously stubborn and absent some exogenous shock, I have a hard time seeing this thing selling off more than 5% before bargain hunters jump in gleefully.

Did you model, by chance, give early signals during the dotcom boom? If so, any chance that might be the case here?

]]>