Monthly Archives: May 2009

TARGET IS NASDAQ 1427 MAGNET

Yesterday’s forecast called for a 100-200 pt. decline and although the mkt. was fairly stubborn early in the session, we did see that forecast come to fruition later in the day. 

Bigger-picture.., we have a set up for severe weakness into the end of May/first week of June with a target of Nasdaq 1427 and I would expect us to be back through the March lows as early as the first week in July.

This is a very dangerous stock market set up and that means the market could crash at any time, but I’ve never seen a crash without a decent amount of warning in my intraday model (in other words all model time frames should match up and agree with the idea of a crash) so, if they’re going to crash, I think I can give you all a few days advance warning.

Bonds, USD, and Gold are tracking nicely but crude continues to levitate in what should become the “last gasp” prior to the realization that the economy is NOT coming back.

The BAM model says crude belongs down at the 25 dollar level (or below) into the first quarter of 2010 and I’m sticking with that call.

Full report coming soon

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Wheat Update

As you all know, I am more bullish wheat than any other commodity on the board (into 2018) and I expect a move to 1400 into the Fall of this year, however, the intraday model is topping and we’re due for a correction during June.  Let’s place a trailing stop at 572 basis July wheat and if we’re not stopped out and it moves higher early next week (as expected) we’ll exit into strength at higher levels.

Full report coming soon

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TRANS DOWN 14% OFF TOP

The stock market is tracking the model nicely today as the TRANS continue to lead.  (they’re now almost 14% off the 5-7 high in less than 5 full sessions) 

This fact confirms that the model’s 4-1 rule is in effect (the rule that states inversions are unwound 4x faster than they originally unfolded) because we now see that the TRANS has already wiped out all of the gains achieved since the April 4th high was registered.  -23 session advance (4-2 through 5-7) was just wiped out in 5 sessions. 

Full report coming soon

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H1N1

As you’ll recall, the BAM US Dollar Index model has been warning us of a coming crash leg back to/through the 2008 lows.  Since that warning went out, we did get back into our long YEN position via the FXY (ETF) in the BAM Model Portfolio, (and that has been working for us) but I haven’t focused much on dollar weakness since then.

Now, however, we need to look around for anything and everything (thus the H1N1 focus lately) that could disrupt the big bounce in stocks and send them back through the March lows.

What is also particularly interesting to me is that the USD model is now matching up nicely with the stock model (which was not the case until stocks inverted recently)–both calling for a sustained decline with lower lows into the first quarter of 2010. (I’m sticking with that SPX 529 target.)

Sure seems like a lot of moving parts to follow–much less move, or “manage”–and I think the model might be telling us that, despite their best efforts, the FED and gov. are making matters worse and that, gradually, they’ll be losing more and more control as we trade forward.

Today’s spike looks to be stalling into this BAM 897 magnet and the market is clearly bearish into 5-6 in my work.

Full report coming soon

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